The Week That Was: 2022-07-23 (July 23, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “The only source of knowledge is experience.” – Albert Einstein
Number of the Week: 50 years
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: After the Supreme Court stopped any effort to use the EPA to remake energy use in the American economy, green advocates hoped to use Congress to pass sweeping legislation to eliminate the use of fossil fuels and promote the use of unreliable wind and solar even further than the current subsidies and mandates require. Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia, a coal producing state that has been severely hurt by the anti-fossil fuel fad, announced he would not support the proposed legislation. This sent advocates of the Green New Deal, including the popular press, into a rage. In their anger many so-called progressives revealed how anti-liberal and anti-democratic they are. This will be discussed in light of economic systems as described in classical economics.
It is July and parts of the Northern Hemisphere are subject to heat waves from stagnant high-pressure systems. These are being used as “proof” of global warming. But they are not global, or even widespread over the land masses in the Northern Hemisphere.
Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Bjorn Lomborg uses a study in The Lancet, Planetary Health to buttress his assertions that warming is beneficial to humanity, cold is far more dangerous.
Atmospheric scientist Roy Spencer created a simple model for estimating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions through the year 2050 and beyond. He compares his model with the various projections of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that uses various guesses of what may happen rather than what is happening. Also, he estimates when the atmosphere will have a CO2 concentration twice that of the assumed preindustrial level.
The American Meteorological Society (AMS) was once a highly respected organization of professionals wishing to learn about changing weather and climate. It is now a highly politicized organization advocating human emissions of CO2 are causing dangerous global warming, using models that fail basic testing against actual atmospheric temperature trends. The AMS statement on the Supreme Court decision in West Virginia v. EPA illustrates how low the organization has sunk.
Last week, TWTW discussed a paper on glaciation in the Andes in which the researchers had ice cores from which one can estimate the relationship between CO2 and temperatures. Instead, the researchers used global climate models to estimate the relationship, even though the models fail basic testing. This week researchers from the University of South Florida published a paper on sea level rise in the western Mediterranean, claiming it had been extremely stable compared with the 20th century. South Florida is geologically stable. If the researchers compared sea levels twenty thousand years ago using corals found in South Florida with those of today, and with those found on dry land today, they would have been able to establish sea level differences from their own back yard.
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Economic Systems: In classical economics, pre-Keynesian, economic systems could be roughly separated by two questions: One, who controls the means of production (farms, factories, etc.); and two, who controls what is produced? In a free-market system, called Capitalism by Karl Marx for its most distasteful characteristic, the wealthy few capitalists; individuals, and groups of individuals (corporations) control the means of production; and markets (individuals acting in groups) control what is produced. In Communism, government controls both the means of production and what is produced. In Socialism government (no matter which type) controls the means of production but the market determines what is produced.
In Fascism, government controls what is produced, but not the means of production. For example, before World War II in Germany, individuals, and corporations (groups of individuals) controlled the means of production. The government controlled what is produced by favoring certain products and by disallowing or outlawing others.
Interestingly, many advocates of a Green New Deal are advocating moving towards a Fascist system – favoring certain types of energy for electricity generation such as wind and solar while punishing other types of energy for electricity generations such as fossil fuels or nuclear (by making disposal of radioactive waste prohibitively expensive).
Such desires were in full display as a result of West Virginia v. EPA. As an editorial in the Wall Street Journal states:
“Democrats denounced Donald Trump as a dictator for invoking emergency powers to build his border wall after he was blocked in Congress. Well, now they’re demanding that President Biden declare climate change a national emergency to advance their anti-carbon agenda that Congress won’t pass. Apparently, dictators are in the eye of the beholder.
Progressives are furious at West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin for scuttling a big climate spending bill. ‘With legislative climate options now closed, it’s now time for executive Beast Mode,’ Rhode Island Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse tweeted last week. And now the White House is leaking that the President may declare a national climate emergency as soon as this week.
This would be an even greater abuse of power than Mr. Trump’s repurposing of military funds for the border wall. We criticized Mr. Trump at the time and warned that a Democratic President might use the precedent to declare a climate emergency. And here we are.
While a President may sometimes need to act with dispatch during an emergency, climate change isn’t close to such an event. Climate change is neither sudden nor unexpected. The world has warmed by 1.1 degree Celsius since the late 19th century, and the pace of future warming is uncertain and depends on multiple variables.
In any case, nothing progressives want Mr. Biden to do will affect the climate or even reduce global CO2 emissions. China and India will continue to build coal plants that offset all of the West’s climate sacrifices.
But that isn’t stopping progressives from demanding that Mr. Biden roll over the Constitution’s separation of powers. One irony is that Congress passed the National Emergencies Act of 1976 to limit abuses of executive power. The law requires the President to activate his powers under one of 130 or so statutes that authorize emergency actions.
Here are some of the ways progressives now want Mr. Biden to impose his climate agenda without democratic assent:
• Halt oil exports. A 2015 legislative compromise by Barack Obama and Paul Ryan lifted the decades-old ban on crude exports in return for extending green-energy tax credits. This helped unleash U.S. oil production, especially in the Permian basin.
Progressives want to end shale fracking. But banning U.S. exports would drive up global oil prices, and the U.S. would still have to import refined products and crude to meet demand. In the name of meeting a climate emergency, they’d create a bigger energy emergency.
• Stop oil and gas drilling in the outer continental shelf. Mr. Biden has already imposed a de facto moratorium on new offshore leases, but progressives want him to suspend existing leases. This would reduce U.S. production by about 1.8 million barrels a day—about two to three times as much as Russian output has declined owing to Western sanctions.
Progressives want Mr. Biden to self-sanction the U.S. oil and gas industry while they prod him to lift sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. Canceling active leases would abrogate contracts and presumably require compensation, which would require money from Congress.
• Use the Defense Production Act to build green energy. This Cold War-era law lets the President marshal domestic industry for national security. Mr. Biden has already invoked the DPA to boost manufacturing of solar panels, lithium-ion batteries, and heat pumps.
While Mr. Biden could try to command manufacturers to make more green products, logistical snags would abound. Auto makers couldn’t easily convert factories into making solar panels or even electric vehicles. A shortage of critical minerals such as cobalt and lithium would also limit production, and it takes years to develop new mines.
• Repurpose funds as Mr. Trump did. The climate left wants Mr. Biden to use funds for disaster relief or military construction to build green energy systems. Americans whose homes are destroyed in wildfires or hurricanes won’t be happy if Mr. Biden raids disaster funds to build solar plants.”
The most serious harm with all this would be to the rule of law. The Supreme Court in its landmark Youngstown Steel (1952) decision blocked Harry Truman’s attempt to nationalize steel mills during the Korean War. Justice Robert Jackson famously explained in his concurrence that a President’s authority is ‘at its maximum’ when he ‘acts pursuant to an express or implied authorization of Congress,’ while it’s weaker when acting ‘in the absence of a congressional grant or denial of authority.’” [Boldface added]
Francis Menton has an essay on how ridiculous climate emergency claims are. Climate has been warming since the end of the Little Ice Age, which the IPCC and climate advocates ignore or try to disguise. If CO2 eliminated this period of widespread starvation, famine, and disease, which is doubtful, then humanity should be grateful for the use of fossil fuels not condemn it. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Article # 1.
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It’s Summertime: A severe heat wave hit parts of western Europe, setting record temperatures in England. This was highly played up in the popular press, claiming such heat waves will become more common in the future. This future is built on models that are contradicted by physical evidence. Separately, Anthony Watts and Cliff Mass discuss this heat wave. Also, Watts discusses the heat wave in the U.S.
Both show maps of all of Europe. It is hot in the west, but cold in the east and the north. For some reason, the alarmist press ignores the cold regions. On July 20, a hot day in England, the low temperature rose to minus 97°F (minus 72°C) at Vostok Station, Antarctica. It had been minus 100°F (minus 73°C) for several days ending on July 12. All too often the word global does not mean the entire globe.
Further, Tony Heller reports that the famed Northwest Passage through the Arctic is not yet open for shipping. Despite predictions, year-round shipping is still to come. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Changing Weather and Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice.
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Making Matters Worse: Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Bjorn Lomborg discusses how twisted the fear of global warming has become. He starts: [Boldface added]
“The chattering classes who jet to conferences at Davos or Aspen have for years been telling the rest of us that our biggest immediate threats are climate change, environmental disasters, and biodiversity loss. They point to the current heat waves killing thousands across Europe as the latest reason to change our societies and economies radically by switching to renewables.
Such arguments are misleading. It’s true that as temperatures rise the world will experience more heat waves, but humans also adapt to such things. In Spain, for example, rising temperatures have actually led to fewer heat deaths, because people have adapted faster than temperatures have gone up. It simply took air conditioning, public cooling centers and better treatment of maladies that are caused or aggravated by heat, such as heatstroke and heart disease.
The exclusive focus on heat deaths is also misleading. Across the world, low temperatures are much more dangerous than high ones: Half a million people die each year from heat, but more than 4.5 million die from cold. While rising temperatures will increase heat deaths, they will also decrease cold deaths. A recent Lancet study found that rising temperatures since 2000 have on net reduced the number of temperature-related deaths. Researchers concluded that by the end of the 2010s, rising temperatures globally were causing 116,000 more heat deaths annually, but also leading to 283,000 fewer cold deaths a year.
Moreover, politicians’ singular focus on climate change ignores that people are much more worried about rampant inflation, especially rising food, and energy prices. And climate policies are making those problems worse.
Much of the extreme energy-price increase that normal people are dealing with is caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. But things wouldn’t be nearly as bad if the West hadn’t thrown up green roadblocks to its own energy security, such as President Biden’s moratorium on gas leases or Europe’s refusal to dig into its substantial shale gas reserves. Climate policies also increase energy prices by subsidizing renewables like solar and wind. That makes it even harder to adapt to the extreme temperatures climate activists bemoan. You need cheap and reliable energy to afford air conditioning in the summer and heating in the winter.
Rising fuel prices are also making food more expensive. Low-cost synthetic fertilizer is one of the greatest technologies humanity has invented for feeding the world, but it’s mostly made with natural gas. Even with almost a billion people at risk of starvation, climate-obsessed bureaucrats still object to producing more fertilizer because of the fossil fuels required.”
Lomborg goes into some details about protests against green policies and concludes with:
“It’s starting to dawn on some elites that their policies are creating political dangers. Frans Timmermans, the European Commission’s vice president, has said that many millions of Europeans may not be able to heat their homes this winter. This, he concludes, could lead to ‘very, very strong conflict and strife.,
He’s right. When people are cold, hungry, and broke, they rebel. If the elites continue pushing incredibly expensive policies that are disconnected from the urgent challenges facing most people, we need to brace for chaos.”
Given what modern measurements reveal about the greenhouse effect, there is no reason to believe anyone selling dangerous global warming. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Article # 2.
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CO2 Concentration Forecast: Using a simple model which he describes, atmospheric scientist Roy Spencer gives a summary of his latest work on CO2 concentration forecasts.
“Summary
The simple CO2 budget model I introduced in 2019 is updated with the latest Mauna Loa measurements of atmospheric CO2 and with new Energy Information Administration estimates of global CO2 emissions through 2050. The model suggests that atmospheric CO2 will barely double pre-industrial levels by 2100, with a total radiative forcing of the climate system well below the most extreme scenario (RCP8.5) used in alarmist literature (and the U.S. national climate assessment), with the closest match to RCP4.5. The model also clearly shows the CO2 reducing effect of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption of 1991.”
Based on his graph, the model forecasts that CO2 will double from pre-industrial levels around 2090. There is no reason to assume that China and the rest of Asia will stop using fossil fuels, regardless of the rants by western politicians. See link under Measurement Issues – Atmosphere.
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How Low Can You Go? In the wake of West Virginia v. EPA, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) released a statement beginning with [Boldface added]:
“1. Climate change is extraordinarily dangerous to humanity and all life
- Climate is a basic life-support system for people and all life.
- Global climate changes occurring now are larger and faster than any humanity is known to have endured since our societal transition to agriculture.
- The physical characteristics of the planet, biological systems, and the resources they provide, and social institutions we have created all depend heavily on climate, are central to human well-being, and are sensitive to climate change.
“2. People are changing climate
- Multiple independent lines of scientific evidence confirm that people bear responsibility.
- The warming effect of our greenhouse gas emissions is demonstrated through laboratory experiments, evidence from past changes in climate on Earth, and the role of greenhouse gasses on other planets.
- The patterns of climate change occurring now match the characteristics we expect from our greenhouse gasses and not the other potential drivers of change: the sun, volcanoes, aerosols, changes in land-use, or natural variability.
“3. The scientific conclusions summarized here result from decades of intensive research and examination
- The scientific evidence has been assessed comprehensively by independent scientific institutions and independent experts that consider all evidence.
- Accuracy is central to credibility for scientific institutions such as the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the American Meteorological Society, and American Association for the Advancement of Science [AAAS], all of which have assessed climate science.
- No broadly contradictory assessments from credible scientific organizations exist.”
Apparently, AMS is unaware that climate has been changing for hundreds of millions of years, long before humanity existed. The current warming is not unusual and over the past 8000 years it has been generally cooling. The atmosphere is not warming at the rate claimed by the scientific institutions. About fifty years of atmospheric evidence shows that the assumptions used by the scientific institutions are out-of-date, obsolete.
In 2011 William Gray, a pioneer in forecasting of hurricanes, wrote about the leadership of AMS:
“The AMS Executive Director Keith Seitter and the other AMS higher-ups and the Council have not shown the scientific maturity and wisdom we would expect of our AMS leaders.”
The same applies today. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Lowering Standards.
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Mixing Data Sources: The 2008 report by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate” contained a graph of “Sea Level Since Last Glacial Maximum” (p.17). It was based on coral and peat data from the Caribbean, which is geologically stable. For the last 4000 years the sea level rise has been generally constant, after rising significantly for about 8000 years. Sea levels are about 120 meters (400 feet) above what they were 18,000 years ago. The journal AAAS Science Advances published a paper with a press release stating:
“According to an international team of researchers led by University of South Florida geologists, sea level has risen 18 centimeters since the start of the 20th century.”
The 18 cm per century (7 inches) is consistent with the findings in the NIPCC report. Yet, the paper used speleothems (stalactites or stalagmites) from a cave in Mallorca, a Mediterranean island off Spain, to estimate a lower sea level rise from for 3,860 to 2,840 years ago. Why did they mix data sources? There was no standardization period given indicating the measurements are similar. The National Science Foundation funded the research. See links under Changing Seas.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving. The entire Biden Administration won in 2021, so individuals in it are still eligible.
The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason the person is qualified for the honor to [email protected] The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on August 14 to 16 at the South Point Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. Registration: https://aaps.wufoo.com/forms/qb79fo31o62uh1/; Hotel: https://be.synxis.com/?adult=1&arrive=2022-08-14&chain=6903&child=0¤cy=USD&depart=2022-08-15&group=DOC0811&hotel=11548&level=hotel&locale=en-US&rooms=1
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Number of the Week: 50 years. On July 22, NASA announced 50 years of the Landsat series of satellites. According to the press release:
“Landsat shows us Earth from space. For 50 years, the mission has collected data on the forests, farms, urban areas, and freshwater of our home planet, generating the longest continuous record of its kind. Decision makers from across the globe use freely available Landsat data to better understand environmental change, manage agricultural practices, allocate scarce water resources, respond to natural disasters and more.”
The press release ignored probably the most important accomplishment of these satellites. They provide fifty years of pictorial evidence that the earth is greening, most likely from enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide. See links under Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide.
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
The Two Degree Limit
By Andy May, WUWT, July 19, 2022
Get Ready For The 100 Year Long Climate “Emergency”
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 22, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-7-22-get-ready-for-the-100-year-long-climate-emergency
“But for a bureaucracy, what the term ‘emergency’ means is the opportunity to issue orders that you could not otherwise issue and pass out money that you could not otherwise pass out.”
Film “A Coral Bleaching Tragedy” with Peter Ridd in Brisbane This Sunday
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 20, 2022
Wrong, Legacy Media, Climate Change Is Not Causing Summer Heatwaves in the U.S. and Europe
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, -July 22, 2022
When Will They Figure Out That Reducing U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Is Pointless?
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 17, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-7-17-when-will-they-figure-out-that-reducing-us-carbon-dioxide-emissions-is-pointless
A ‘Sixth Mass Extinction’ Coming Up? Crunching the Numbers
By Paul MacRae, WUWT, July 18, 2022
Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections
By Patrick Frank, Frontiers in Earth Science, Sep 6, 2019
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2019.00223/full
An Open Letter to Senator Joe Manchin
By Alex Epstein, Energy Talking Points, July 20, 2022 [H/t William Readdy]
https://alexepstein.substack.com/p/an-open-letter-to-senator-joe-manchin
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Patrick Michaels, RIP
Remembering Pat
By Chip Knappenberger, Master Resource, July 21, 2022
Knappenberger was co-author (with Michaels) of Lukewarming: The New Climate Science that Changes Everything and several important papers.
The End of an Era – Vale Patrick Michaels
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, July 20, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Michaels & Knappenbergr showing the great distortion of data used by the IPCC. An organization with scientific integrity must show the entire data record.]
Patrick Michaels, influential climate denier, dies at 72
By Scott Waldman, E & E News, July 19, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy
U.S. Senate Democrats urge Biden to declare climate emergency
By David Morgan, Reuters, Via Yahoo, July 18, 2022
https://news.yahoo.com/u-senate-democrats-urge-biden-003307396.html?guccounter=1
Humanity faces ‘collective suicide’ over climate crisis, warns UN chief
António Guterres tells governments ‘half of humanity is in danger zone’, as countries battle extreme heat
By Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, July 18, 2022
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/18/humanity-faces-collective-suicide-over-climate-crisis-warns-un-chief
How not to solve the climate change problem?
By Kevin Trenberth, The Conservation, July 20, 2022
https://theconversation.com/how-not-to-solve-the-climate-change-problem-187222
[SEPP Comment: With four decades of work on climate change, Trenberth has learned to avoid any mention atmospheric measurements that contradict climate change models. He cites IPCC reports as proof of human cause.]
Easily Solvable
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, July 17, 2022
Link to special statement: The Supreme Court Decision in West Virginia v. EPA: A Setback in a Time of Tremendous Opportunity
A Special Statement of the American Meteorological Society
Adopted by the AMS Council on 8 July 2022
https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/about-ams/ams-statements/statements-of-the-ams-in-force/the-supreme-court-decision-in-west-virginia-v-epa-a-setback-in-a-time-of-tremendous-opportunity/
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Climate Alarmists Respond to the Global Warming Pause
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 21, 2022
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Cold Kills: Since 2000 There Were 85 Times More UK Excess Deaths Attributable To Cold Than Heat
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 21, 2022
Link to study: Small-area assessment of temperature-related mortality risks in England and Wales: a case time series analysis
By Prof Antonio Gasparrini, et al. The Lancet Planetary Health, July 7, 2022
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519622001383
Explaining Our Enduring Mild Climate
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, July 21, 2022
[SEPP Comment: A different interpretation of what delays the cooling of the earth.]
A Very Serious Consequence Of Climate Change–Sadiq Khan [Mayor of London]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 16, 2022
“It seems that Sadiq Khan has been sending this extremely irresponsible and misleading warning out to his citizens.”
Energy and Environmental Review: July 18, 2022
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, July 18, 2022
After Paris!
Members only
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 20, 2022
“The ‘G7 Statement on Climate Club’, unveiled by our own Justin Trudeau in his characteristic cat-that-ate-the-canary style, begins with this great gust: ‘Recognising the necessity of the transition to a 1.5°C pathway and climate neutrality at the latest by 2050, we note with concern that currently neither global climate ambition nor implementation are sufficient to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We aim to establish a Climate Club to support the effective implementation of the Paris Agreement by accelerating climate action and increasing ambition, with a particular focus on the industry sector, thereby addressing risks of carbon leakage for emission intensive goods, while complying with international rules.’”
Change in US Administrations
Biden labels climate change an ‘emergency,’ stopping short of declaration
By Rachel Frazin, and Morgan Chalfant, The Hill, July 20, 2022
Joe Biden’s War on Fossil Fuels
By Jakob Puckett, Real Clear Energy, July 18, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/07/18/joe_bidens_war_on_fossil_fuels_842813.html
Biden to declare climate emergency? Ban offshore drilling?
By David Middleton, WUWT, July 20, 2022
Biden Is Running Out of Time to Lead on Climate
By Stephen Collinson, CNN, July 21, 2022
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/20/politics/biden-climate-leadership-analysis/index.html
“UK smashes its hottest-day record, 100 million Americans under alerts in global heat emergency.”
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Elevated CO2 Reduces Temperature Stress in Plants
By Craig D. Idso, Master Resource, July 20, 2022
50 Years of Landsat
By Yvette Smith, NASA, July 22, 2022
https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/50-years-of-landsat
Problems in the Orthodoxy
China’s Coal-fired Power Plants Dominate
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, July 20, 2022
“China gets stronger, economically and militarily, while the United States gets weaker with this administration’s war on fossil fuels.”
China speeding up approvals for new coal plants: Greenpeace
By AFP Staff Writers, Beijing (AFP) July 20, 2022
https://www.energy-daily.com/reports/China_speeding_up_approvals_for_new_coal_plants_Greenpeace_999.html
China Is Still Ramping Up Coal Power
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 21, 2022
Seeking a Common Ground
The UK heatwave in perspective
By David Whitehouse, July 21, 2022
“The bottom line is that the climate is changing and the UK is (slightly) warmer today than many decades ago. We live in a warming world and thus can expect more heat waves in the future. Definite assertions about causes and predictions are fraught with complications and uncertainties that only more data will dispel. Whatever the case, more wind turbines or solar panel won’t do anything to help people cope with heat waves or prevent similar events in the future.”
BP Energy Review 2021
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 18, 2022
Link to report: Statistical Review of World Energy
By Staff lead by Spencer Dale, BP, March 14, 2022
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html
“The second chart neatly encapsulates why oil prices have been rocketing in the past year:”
Why a climate national emergency declaration is ill-advised
By James Rogan, Washington Examiner, July 20, 2022 [H/t Gordon Fulks]
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/patriotism-unity/why-a-climate-national-emergency-declaration-is-ill-advised
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Dear UK, from hot Australia, your NetZero policies will kill far more people than a 40C weekday
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 18, 2022
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Updated Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Forecast through 2050 and Beyond
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, July 18, 2022
The European Heat Wave and Global Warming
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 21, 2022
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/07/the-european-heat-wave-and-global.html
“The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability and the smaller the contribution of human-caused global warming.”
Hottest Evah!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 19, 2022
Germany 2022 Summer ‘Heat Wave’? So Far July Has Been Cooler Than Long-Term Mean
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 19, 2022
It doesn’t snow like in the olden days
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 20, 2022
The Climate Crisis Of July 22, 1901
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 22, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/07/the-climate-crisis-of-july-22-1901-1901/
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
New Study: The Reality Of The Medieval Warm Period Confirmed By Changes In Agricultural Practices
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 18, 2022
Link to latest study: Climate adaptation of pre-Viking societies
By Manon Bajard, et al. Quaternary Science Reviews, Feb 15, 2022
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379122000051#undfig1
Changing Seas
Hidden in caves: Mineral overgrowths reveal unprecedented modern sea level rise
By Staff, NSF, July 20, 2022
https://beta.nsf.gov/news/hidden-caves-mineral-overgrowths-reveal-unprecedented-modern-sea-level-rise?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
Link to paper: Exceptionally stable preindustrial sea level inferred from the western Mediterranean Sea
By Bogdan Onac, et al., AAAS Science Advances, July 29, 2022
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm6185
CDN by the Sea: Argentine Islands, Antarctica
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 20, 2022
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Climate Emergency
On July 20, Minus 97°F, it warmed up from minus 100°F at Vostok Station, Antarctica [H/t Gordon Fulks]
https://www.accuweather.com/en/aq/vostok-station/2273742/july-weather/2273742
http://summitcamp.org/status/weather/
Today’s Arctic Shipping
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 22, 2022
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2022/07/the-latest-consequence-of-climate-change/
Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2022/07/todays-arctic-shipping/
Tough Times For Arctic Alarmists
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 20, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/07/tough-times-for-arctic-alarmists/
Some of the first polar bears onshore in Western Hudson Bay are in excellent condition
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, July 19, 2022
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Of Experience and Fools: Ignoring the Sri Lankan Disaster
By Richard W. Fulmer, Master Resource, July 19, 2022
[SEPP Comment: According to the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture in 2019: “The most profitable export sectors for the Netherlands are ornamental plants and flowers (€5.8 billion), dairy products and eggs (€4.3 billion), meat (€4.0 billion) and vegetables (€3.5 billion)” with Germany being the number one destination.]
Lowering Standards
On The Hijacking of the American Meteorological Society
By William, Gray, Heartland Institute, June 1, 2011 [H/t Chuck Wiese]
https://www.heartland.org/publications-resources/publications/on-the-hijacking-of-the-american-meteorological-society
Climate Monitoring Since The Little Ice Age
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 19, 2022
“Meanwhile the jokers at the Met Office don’t seem to have realised that their temperature records begin at the depth of the Little Ice Age, or appear to have heard about Urban Heat Islands:”
Communicating Statistics on the Health Effects of Climate Change
By Ellen Peters, Ph.D., and Renee N. Salas, M.D., M.P.H. The New England Journal of Medicine, July 21, 2022
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2201801?query=TOC&cid=NEJM%20eToc,%20July%2021,%202022%20DM1270826_NEJM_Non_Subscriber&bid=1075928723
[SEPP Comment: Two of the references were by the principal author, one titled “Innumeracy in the wild: misunderstanding and misusing numbers.” The fact that such an article made it to press in NEJM indicates that the editors of NEJM are likewise numerically illiterate, or not cognizant of the logarithmic relationship between greenhouse gases and temperatures.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
BBC Ignore The Real Reason For Sri Lanka’s Problems
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 20, 2022
NYT Climate Reporting: Some Realism amid Political Retreat
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, July 22, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
New paper polar bears attracted to garbage dumps blames lack of sea ice without any evidence
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, July 21, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Vox populi
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 20, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Is the public onboard with chattering class alarmism?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
The heatwave green hysteria is out of control
By Brendan O’Neill, The Spectator, July 18, 2022 [H/t Paul Homewood]
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-heatwave-green-hysteria-is-out-of-control
UK May Set New, All-Time Record High Next Week. And: Germany’s Doomsday Health Minister
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 15, 2022
Why the US is so horribly incapable of meaningful climate action
By Zachary Wolf, CNN, July 18, 2022
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/18/politics/us-climate-change-inaction-what-matters/index.html
“Europe’s problem is the world’s problem.”
Expanding the Orthodoxy
WV v. EPA and SEC Climate Risk Disclosure Rule
By Benjamin Zycher The Hill July 21, 2022
Questioning European Green
Net Zero policy already costing at least £2000 per household
Press Release by Net Zero Watch, July 21, 2022
Link to report: What Is Net Zero Costing Now?
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Accessed July 22, 2022
Green energy shift gives China ‘leverage’ over Britain, Lords warn
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 21, 2022
New Prime Minister will have to pause Net Zero or face the demise of UK’s steel industry
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, July 22, 2022
“’It is becoming more evident by the day that the Climate Change Committee misled Parliament over the true cost of Net Zero. Most energy-intensive businesses in the UK won’t be able to survive the looming Net Zero cost crisis unless the new Prime Minister takes swift action.’” [Benny Peiser]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The Utopian Vision Driving Green Energy Enthusiasts
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 18, 2022
The Political Games Continue
Democrats Are Now Begging Biden To Act Like A Dictator
By I & I Editorial Board, July 20, 2022
Where the scorching July heatwave is hitting the US hardest
By Zach Schonfeld, The Hill, July 20, 2022
“As president, I have a responsibility to act with urgency and resolve when our nation faces clear and present danger. And that is what climate change is about,” Biden said.
Joe Manchin is ‘intentionally sabotaging the president’s agenda’: Bernie Sanders
The West Virginia senator recently scuttled legislation on climate change.
By Tal Axelrod, ABC News, July 17, 2022
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sanders-manchin-intentionally-sabotaging-presidents-agenda/story?id=86941518
The next Tory leader should commit to ditching net zero
The Conservatives are either the party of net zero or the party of low taxes. They cannot be both
By Rupert Darwall, The Spectator, July 16, 2022
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/will-the-next-tory-leader-finally-ditch-net-zero-
“‘We’re all Keynesians now,’ Richard Nixon reportedly said in 1971 before ushering in a decade of high inflation. In the twilight of his premiership, Boris Johnson’s chief political legacy to the Conservative party is likely to be cakeism – the political philosophy that denies the existence of trade-offs and asserts you can have it all.”
Captain Carbon and Company
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 20, 2022
“Hypocrisy is far more often a sign of self-satisfaction than sinister plotting. If people were really conspiring, they’d be more careful about appearances. But it is a warning sign of fatuity in thought and deed.”
Litigation Issues
UK High Court: Net Zero Policy Violates the Climate Change Act
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 20, 2022
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
The windfall tax epitomises the Tories’ energy muddle
By Connor Tomlinson, Net Zero Watch, July 20, 2022
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Oil exporting and poorer countries have lower costs for gasoline
By Ronald Stein, CFACT, July 21, 2022
https://www.cfact.org/2022/07/21/oil-exporting-and-poorer-countries-have-lower-costs-for-gasoline/
Energy Issues – Non-US
How Energy Demand Bounced Back After The Pandemic
By Robert Rapier, Oil Price.com, Jul 14, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-Energy-Demand-Bounced-Back-After-The-Pandemic.html
Germany’s Running Out Of Energy: Wind Turbine Construction Stalls, Firewood Becoming Scarce!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 16, 2022
South Africa faces blackouts, vandalism, protests and people in hospital from DIY electricity. Coal to run for longer.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 22, 2022
Germany plans to be wood fired nation (for homes), but has run out already. EU says: now plan which industries to close first
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 19, 2022
Up the pipe
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 20, 2022
Energy Issues – Australia
Now it’s a gas crisis for a global gas exporter: AEMO says there is a “Threat to System Security”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 20, 2022
Victoria’s Green Zealots Banned Gas Fracking – Now Running Out of Gas
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 19, 2022
Energy Issues — US
Wind and Solar Fail to Reduce PJM’s CO2 Emissions
By Gregory Wrightstone, Real Clear Energy, July 21, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/07/21/wind_and_solar_fail_to_reduce_pjms_co2_emissions_843839.html
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Saudi Arabia Reveals Oil Production Capacity Limits
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Jul 18, 2022,
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Reveals-Oil-Production-Capacity-Limits.html
“At the Jeddah summit, the Saudi crown prince also criticized the growing backlash against fossil fuels, saying that ‘The adoption of unrealistic policies to reduce emissions by excluding major sources of energy without taking into account the resulting impact of these policies on the social and economic pillars of sustainable development and global supply chains will lead in the coming years to unprecedented inflation, rise in energy prices, increase unemployment and exacerbate serious social and security problems, including an increase in poverty and famine and crime rates, extremism and terrorism.’”
Europe eyes 42pc rise in LNG import capacity by 2026
By Staff, Argus, July 13, 2022
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2350499-europe-eyes-42pc-rise-in-lng-import-capacity-by-2026?backToResults=true
U.S. Oil Companies Double Capital Expenditures Year-Over-Year
By David Middleton, WUWT, July 22, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Interesting graph comparing last year’s revenue, capital expenditures, and taxes of ExxonMobil with Apple.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Energy Crises In Germany and Texas Are Exposing The Folly of Renewable Energy | Opinion
By Robert Bryce, Newsweek, July 12, 2022
https://www.newsweek.com/energy-crises-germany-texas-are-exposing-folly-renewable-energy-opinion-1724084
Twisting in the wind: Texas faces blackouts as heat wave strains windmill-reliant power grid
By Susan Ferrechio, The Washington Times, July 15, 2022
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/jul/15/twisting-wind-texas-faces-blackouts-heat-wave-stra/
“According to ERCOT, at peak hours on July 11, wind was generating only 2,600 megawatts — far below its capacity to produce more than 35,000 megawatts of power. Solar was producing 9,500 megawatts, while a combination of natural gas, coal and nuclear was producing nearly 68,000 megawatts of power.
“With a demand of 80,000 megawatts, the state remains on the brink of blackouts.
“‘For Texas to be telling Texans to not live the 2022 life of a Texan because the grid can’t compete is not progress,’ Mr. Turner [advocate for fossil fuels] said. ‘This is regressing into a worse state of living. And that’s not something to be proud of.’”
Wind Power Fail: Texas Heatwave Triggers Record Fossil Fuel Demand
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 20, 2022
Biden to pursue wind energy in the Gulf of Mexico
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, July 20, 2022
Carbon Schemes
Cerulean Winds aims to make UK’s oil and gas production cleanest in the world
By Staff Writers, Glasgow, Scotland (SPX), Jul 21, 2022
https://www.oilgasdaily.com/reports/Cerulean_Winds_aims_to_make_UKs_oil_and_gas_production_cleanest_in_the_world_999.html
California Dreaming
California went big on rooftop solar. Now that’s a problem for landfills
By Rachel Kisela, Los Angeles Times, July 14, 2022
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-07-14/california-rooftop-solar-pv-panels-recycling-danger
Health, Energy, and Climate
Climate Crisis? Ever Fewer People Dying Of Climate Disasters. There’s Hype, And There’s Reality
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 20, 2022
Other News that May Be of Interest
A Beautiful Aurora Last Night: Another May Be On the Way
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 19, 2022
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/07/a-beautiful-aurora-last-night-another.html
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
World To End In the Next 30 Years
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 20, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/07/world-to-end-in-the-next-30-years/
“We’re Not Going to Make it to 2050
“The Age of Extinction Is Dawning by the Day — And We’re Doing Too Little Too Late to Stop It”
String Pollution Crisis
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, July 21, 2022
CNN: Out Of Context And Irrelevant
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 21, 2022
Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2022/07/cnn-out-of-context-and-irrelevant/
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2022/07/lies-damned-lies-and-cnn-3/
CNN: “The Amount of Greenland ice that melted last weekend could cover West Virginia in a foot of water”
[SEPP Comment: Including Spruce Knob, 4863 feet above sea level? Harpers Ferry is the lowest point at 247 feet above sea level.]
The debate is closed
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 20, 2022
“’A perfect storm of climate change, a European war, Covid supply problems and rising costs have left French producers short of the brown seeds that make their mustard, mustard.’”
Peak Absurdity In The Woke Theater
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 19, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-7-19-peak-absurdity-in-the-woke-theater
Oh that China
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 20, 2022
“On The Atlantic’s home “Planet” Robinson Meyer asked a month ago what would happen if Manchin really did manage to torpedo Biden’s climate plans.
“’Over the past few days, I’ve asked this question of energy analysts and climate scholars. Some of them have found it too depressing to contemplate. Others have shrugged. Even setting the legislative uncertainty aside, this year has been one of the most destabilizing moments for energy markets this century…. But we can make some safe bets. If Congress fails to pass climate legislation, the effects won’t be felt immediately outside of a few areas…. But over the coming decade, the world will wind up a hotter, poorer place. Carbon emissions will remain high, and the basic framework of the Paris Agreement on climate change may start to crumble.’”
ARTICLES
1. The ‘Beast Mode’ Presidency?
For Biden to declare a ‘climate emergency’ would be a serious abuse of power.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, July 19, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-beast-mode-presidency-joe-biden-climate-emergency-democrats-sheldon-whitehouse-supreme-court-11658268249?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
TWTW Summary: Discussed in the “This Week” section above.
*****************
2. How the Climate Elite Spread Misery
Most people are more worried about high gas and food prices, which green policies make worse.
By Bjorn Lomborg, WSJ, July 21, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-climate-elite-spread-misery-heat-wave-global-warming-energy-adapted-temperatures-deaths-environment-11658437091?mod=opinion_lead_pos5
Link to study: Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
By Prof Qi Zhao, et al. The Lancet, Planetary Health, July 2021
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00081-4/fulltext
TWTW Summary: Discussed in the “This Week” section above.
